1. What This Page Is
Most of what this site argues can be tested against things that haven't happened yet: a Budget decision, a ballot in another country, a new set of official forecasts. This page lists them in advance, with what each one tests and which pages it will change.
Listing them before the outcome matters. It commits the project to using the result even when it cuts against an argument made here, and it lets readers check that we did.
The rules for every item:
- We wait for the official outcome (Budget documents, certified results, published data), not briefings, leaks or polls.
- When the outcome is known, we write it into the pages listed, log the change in the Update Register, and move the item to Section 3 with a link to that entry.
- A result that weakens an argument on this site is written in the same way as one that supports it.
How items are found. Once a week an automated search looks for upcoming events and new data relevant to the site's claims, and for outcomes of the items below. It suggests changes; a named person checks each one against the same sourcing standard as the rest of the site (see How We Reach Conclusions) before anything appears here. Readers can suggest items through Challenge a Claim.
Last checked: 2 November 2026.
2. Open Items
| Event | Expected | What it tests | Where it will go |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Proposition 40. A one-time 5% tax on net worth above $1 billion for people living in California on 1 January 2026, payable over five years. Economists disagree on how much departures have already shrunk the base. | Vote on 3 November 2026; collections and departure data from 2027 | How quickly the very wealthy move when a tax on wealth is proposed; how a tax treats founders whose wealth is in shares they can't easily sell | Wealth Tax or Inheritance Tax? §4.2 and §5; Gaps Register Gap 2 and Gap 6 |
| ONS migration estimates, year ending June 2026. The next provisional figures for long-term immigration, emigration and net migration (release announcement). They are official statistics in development, and earlier periods are often revised. | 26 November 2026 | Whether net migration has kept falling from 171,000 in 2025, and whether the ONS still puts the fall down mainly to fewer non-EU workers and dependants after the 2024 and 2025 visa changes | Immigration (The Numbers That Matter and §2.2) |
3. Written In
Items whose outcome is known and has been written into the site, with the Update Register entry where the change is recorded.
| Event | Outcome | Written in | Update Register entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK Budget: capital gains tax (28 October 2026) | The main rates of capital gains tax were left unchanged. A new 10% Founders' Relief on up to £10m of lifetime gains and a halved lifetime limit for Business Asset Disposal Relief roughly cancel out. Tax on savings and property income was raised by a further 2 percentage points instead. The Budget documents give no reason for leaving the main rates alone, so the outcome shows what was decided, not why. It is consistent with the view that fear of wealthy people leaving or delaying sales limits even moderate taxes on wealth, which counts against, not for, this site's 95% inheritance tax proposal | Tax Avoidance; Wealth Tax or Inheritance Tax? §10; Economic Renewal counter-arguments | U271 |
| OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook (28 October 2026) | Debt 96% of GDP this year, peaking at 97% in 2028-29. Debt interest £109bn in 2025-26, forecast to reach £160bn (4.2% of GDP) by 2031-32. Current budget in surplus by £15bn in 2029-30, with a 56% chance of meeting the rule. Borrowing falls from 4.4% to 1.8% of GDP by 2031-32 | Public Debt (summary, The Numbers That Matter, §6). Public Spending Overview (debt interest forecast). How Tax Works uses no figures from these forecasts | U271 |
4. Government Responses to Our Proposals
When a government announces, legislates or brings into force something close to one of this site's Key Proposals, or rules one out, it is recorded here and the proposal is tagged where it appears. A tag is added only from an official document, never from reporting. It says how far the government has gone and how far the change has got, and it records that the government adopted something similar, not that this site caused it.
| Proposal | Government response | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replace the triple lock with a smoothed earnings link (Welfare) | From April 2030 the state pension is to rise by the highest of inflation, 2.5% or the amount needed to keep its value against earnings. Unlike this proposal, it keeps a 2.5% minimum rise. | Partly adopted, announced 28 October 2026 | DWP State Pension uprating analysis 2026; Budget 2026 |
| Replace the triple lock with a smoothed earnings link (The State Pension Explained) | From April 2030 the state pension is to rise by the highest of inflation, 2.5% or the amount needed to keep its value against earnings. Unlike this proposal, it keeps a 2.5% minimum rise. | Partly adopted, announced 28 October 2026 | DWP State Pension uprating analysis 2026; Budget 2026 |